Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project

Presenter: Bob Gall
Date: Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Robert (Bob) Gall, Development Manager of HFIP, NOAA, and the former Director of NCAR's Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, discusses the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP). Its goals are to reduce the error in track and intensity forecast guidance from numerical model systems by 20% in five years (by 2014) and 50% in ten years. Additional goals include skillful seven-day forecasts and a greatly increased ability to forecast rapid intensification and decay. To meet these goals by the deadlines the HFIP has organized a large component of the hurricane community to focus on various aspects of development of the numerical and statistical model forecast guidance systems expected to lead to these improvements. This includes development of advanced data assimilation systems and ensemble systems at high resolution for both regional and global models followed by statistical post processing.

HFIP was summarized extensively in a recent Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society article: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00071.1. In this presentation we will give an overview of the program followed by recent results.

We are nearing the end of the first five years of the HFIP and if the Project is to be successful, some of the research results that it has been working on with NCEP and the community to get into operations ought to be apparent in operational hurricane model results. In this talk we will outline those results and note where we need to focus the effort during the next five years.

Topics:Weather Research
Audience:Graduate/professional

Copyright: UCAR/NCAR